Why John McCain can help us win the 54th AD

The past two weeks have proved to be both unpredictable and opportunistic. As most of you know, I was the CD 46 chair for Rudy Guliani, whom I believe would have given voters of all demographics someone to consider. We also saw the biggest flaw in the "big state" strategy during his campaign: the early primaries offer free media coverage that literally feeds one's campaign. McCain, Romney & Huckabee figured this out, and were hence the three that survived to Super Tuesday. (I don't consider Ron Paul a serious candidate; send me a comment if you'd like me to debate this on a future posting.)

After Super Tuesday's performance by Senator McCain, I noticed something that may have been lost on most ultra-conservatives of our Party. Despite our state Party's exclusion of non-Republicans from our primary, McCain took an overwhelming majority of California's delegates. The hypothesis of the state leadership was having solely Republican votes in the presidential primary would yield a more conservative presidential nominee. I believe that California Republicans know what the state Republican activists haven't comprehended yet; that having a moderately conservative candidate gives us the best chance of not only winning the White House, but also many of our closer legislative battles by competing for independent voters.

Our Congressional, State Senatorial, and Assembly candidates will appear on their respective November ballots directly after the presidential candidates, meaning that a voter's choice for President will be immediately followed by their choices for the state-level races. Because of this, our nominees will have a significant portion of their vote intertwined with that of our presidential nominee within their districts. If our nominee does well in a district, so will our state-level nominees there. If our nominee cannot lure the independent vote, currently estimated at 22% in our own 54th Assembly District, then our district and others currently held by Democrats will have little chance of changing hands.

The one thing John McCain brings over all else is his ability to attract the growing number of independent and third-party candidates throughout California, as well as traditional Democrats (aka. JFK/Reagan Democrats) that have turned away from the MoveOn.org activists controlling their party. In the 54th AD, the Democratic registration advantage is still close to an 8% gap at 43%-35%. This means that with even split of independents, our nominee still loses in the 54th 54%-46%. Where we stand a chance to win is by winning more independents & some Democratic voters. This requires both a presidential nominee able to capture independents, and an assembly nominee who can hold on to those independents when they reach the assembly member portion of the ballot.

The liberal press will continue to "report" that Senator McCain needs to focus on patching up the conservative voters and making his platform more appealing to our own Party members. I think most of us would attest that neither Clinton nor Obama will be luring many Republican voters to their camp; what they can do is lure more independent and moderate voters if McCain is forced to make his platform ultra-conservative to the point where he alienates most of the independent vote. The Democrats are relying on the far-right activists within our party to create dissention within it. Because of their current situation with Obama & Clinton both garnering 49% of their delegates, they can only hope that Republicans also continue to battle within. DNC Chairman Howard Dean has gone on record as being concerned about their eventual nominee only having 8 short weeks to campaign for the independent vote due to having no clear nominee until their convention. If we are foolish enough to wait until then to ally ourselves around one nominee as well, then we've taken away the opportunity to start talking to the independent 22% in our district, as well as the independent 30% state-wide.

I hope our party leaders have realized the opportunity we now have; not only to keep the White House in safe Republican hands, but a genuine opportunity to take batteground legislative districts, like our own 54th AD, by giving 22% of our district a presidential candidate worth voting for. Issues like the economy, taxes & national defense are those we've been successful at luring independent voters; issues such as abortion, gay rights and illegal immigration will only keep our candidates pinned down in a quagmire of debates that will take moderate voters away. There's a difference between "staying true to all of one's principles" & having to live in a world where any of those principles cease to exist. Senator McCain may not have been the most ultimate conservative in the past few years; but this may be the very characteristic that keeps our country out of the hands of the Democratic Party.

And having a nominee who can get independent voters gives us the opportunity to have them continue down the ballot to our other fine candidates.